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MARKET COMMENTARY


MARKET CONDITION

The local real estate market is really split between two very different sub markets. One sub market is vibrant with listings receiving frequent showings, competing offers and quick market times. The other is in noticeably in a recession with sporadic showings, few offers and fewer sales. The difference between the two is price. Listings that are priced at the lower end of fair value or below are receiving the kind of activity that we experienced before the real estate collapse. Foreclosures are often in this category because their owners, banks, need to liquidate their REO (Real Estate Owned) inventory and minimize their holding costs. They price their property to sell. The other sub market is comprised of listings that are not priced as aggressively. It is a market where sellers need to, or want to, extract as much equity as possible. Showings are less frequent and buyers are less interested in buying, unless the property is just what they are looking for.

There are more houses for sale than there are buyers to buy them. Price has become a very prominent criteria to buyers who know that if they wait long enough, they will either find the perfect house or a suitable property at a very good price. This is an ideal environment for buyers and a not so ideal one for sellers.

The Federal Reserve has made it clear that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future and housing price surveys have shown that there has not been any meaningful price appreciation in the local market. In fact, prices may still be declining and will decline further if banks step up the release of REOs into the market. All this bolsters buyers' confidence that prices are not rising anytime soon. There just is no urgency to buy, which is critical for price support.

Until the cost of buying residential real estate begins to rise, buyers will bide their time or shop for the bargains. Rising mortgage rates, reduced inventory and increased demand are the three major factors that will move housing cost higher. None of them appear imminent.


SELLING TIP

While you can't change the market, you can work it to your advantage. Determine your time line. If you have six months to a year, you can afford to price in the middle to upper range of fair market value, to see if you can find that right buyer. When using this strategy, it is imperative that regular price reductions are employed every three to four weeks to ease the property down to where the market is. Failure to do so will tend to make the property "stale"which will adversely affect marketability. If you have less than six months, the property should be priced more aggressively, again with regular price reductions to bring it down to market. In urgent situations, such as an upcoming foreclosure or move in which you can't afford to pay for both the new residence and the old, the property should be priced at the very low end of fair value to facilitate a quick sale.

Another factor that should be considered in pricing is what happens if the house doesn't sell? The less options you have the lower the price should be. Many sellers are choosing to keep the property and rent it out if it doesn't sell at an acceptable price. The rental market is strong and being a landlord can be a rewarding experience. If that option is under consideration I urge you to read our page on Property Management.

A very important factor in pricing is property condition. The more attractive a property looks, the more you will sell it for. While it is understandable that sellers hesitate to put money into a property that they are going to sell, just imagine how the buyer feels about having to take money out of pocket (assuming they have it) and put it into their new house. If they have to spend money, they will discount the house accordingly. In most cases buyers greatly overestimate the cost of the repair. Our Selling Tips page in the Sellers section of the site has great tips for improving the appearance of your house without spending a lot of money.

The bottom line, if you wouldn't pay what you want to ask for the house, buyers probably wouldn't either, so price it where buyers will see value. Doing so will take your house out of the recession and put it squarely in the active market. If you failing to do so there is always plan B.

BUYING TIP

The afford ability of residential real estate is at historic lows. Thanks to recession pricing, lots of inventory and very low interest rates there has never been a better time to buy a home.

There has been a lot of attention given to foreclosures, many of which need repairs. So, which is better, buying a house needing work that is cheap or buying one for more money that does not need work? There are several important factors to consider. Do you have access to cash to pay for the repairs? Your mortgage will only cover a percentage of the acquisition cost. Can you do the work yourself or have access to cheap labor? Generally, paying someone at standard rates to do the work negates any savings from the price. Do you have experience with the kind of work that needs to be done? If the answers are "yes" you could benefit from buying a fixer upper, otherwise you may actually come out better buying a house that has already been updated and upgraded.

Sellers typically don't get all their money back for improvements when they sell, which means the buyer is getting the upgrades and updates at a discount. Also, look at the financial cost by comparing the added monthly cost of buying a house that is move in ready versus the opportunity cost on the out of pocket money you spend for repairing a cheaper house. For instance, at 4.50% on a 30-year mortgage every thousand more you spend for the house costs you about $5.00 more on your monthly payment. If you save $10,000 on the price, how much can you repair for $50 a month? Carefully weighing all the factors will help you make the best financial decision.


To read a discussion on the 2005 - 2010 housing decline please click here.


 

Written by Mike Salkin, Berkshire Real Estate market analyst.

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